Turkey

2023 - 1 - 18

Post cover — Image courtesy of "Reuters"

Turkey's inflation seen at 42.5% in 2023, GDP growth at 3% (Reuters)

Turkey's inflation is expected to fall to 42.5% this year, much higher than an official forecast, while GDP growth is seen far below the official forecast ...

Those compare to Ankara's forecasts of 2.5% and 1.4%, respectively. The best that President Erdogan can hope for is that it will come after the elections," Thin said in a note. The poll also predicted gross domestic product (GDP) growth would fall short of official expectations. Officials say price stability will be achieved once chronic current account deficits flip to surpluses, as a result of the interest rate-cutting programme. It was seen falling to 26.4% in 2024. While inflation eased to 64.3% in December due largely to base effects, economists expect its decline to be slower than Ankara expects.

Turkish far right 'sells bus tickets' to deport Syrian refugees in new ... (Middle East Eye)

Victory Party promises donations will be spent on deporting Syrians, asking for names of people its supporters want out of the country.

A decade on from the outbreak of the [Syrian war](https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/syria-war), this has led to societal and political tensions. To learn more about republishing this content and the associated fees, please fill out this [ 3.6 million Syrians](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/10/24/turkey-hundreds-refugees-deported-syria#:~:text=Turkey%20shelters%20over%203.6%20million,not%20granted%20full%20refugee%20status.), making it the world's largest refugee-hosting country, along with close to 320,000 refugees from other nationalities, according to the UN. "Ticket sales for Zafer Tourism's one-way trips to Damascus have begun," the party's chairman Umit Ozdag tweeted on Monday. You have obtained illegal citizenship. [Turkey’s](https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/turkey) far-right Victory Party has launched a fundraising campaign promising to spend the cash on bus tickets it says will be used to deport [Syrian](https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/syria) [refugees](https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/refugees).

Turkey's inflation seen at 42.5 percent in 2023, GDP growth at 3 ... (LBCI)

Turkeys inflation is expected to fall to 42.5 percent this year, much higher than an official forecast, while GDP growth is seen far below the official ...

Those compare to Ankara's forecasts of 2.5 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. The median forecast of 12 economists in the poll stood at 42.5 percent for inflation at end-2023, with forecasts ranging between 28.5 percent and 48.1 percent. The best that President Erdogan can hope for is that it will come after the elections," Thin said in a note. The poll also predicted gross domestic product (GDP) growth would fall short of official expectations. It was seen falling to 26.4 percent in 2024. While inflation eased to 64.3 percent in December due largely to base effects, economists expect its decline to be slower than Ankara expects.

Turkey's shopping mall boom or bust? | Alexandra de Cramer | AW (The Arab Weekly)

Building shopping centres means a construction boom that has helped cement Erdogan party's economic upper hand. Tuesday 17/01/2023. A view inside a shopping ...

During the first few months of the pandemic, [30 malls across Turkey](https://www.duvarenglish.com/dozens-of-malls-in-turkey-risk-bankruptcy-as-result-of-pandemic-losses-news-55860) were on the brink of bankruptcy. Although citizens were banned from walking in parks, [malls were allowed](https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/berat-albayrak-avmlerin-acilmasini-istemis-1735011) to open three months into the pandemic. Collectively, Turkey’s shopping mall construction industry is [$12 billion in debt](https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/ekonomi/avmler-borcunun-faizini-bile-odeyemiyor-7464937/) and 88 percent of that is in foreign currency. [unable to pay](https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/ekonomi/avmler-borcunun-faizini-bile-odeyemiyor-7464937/) the interest on their loans, let alone the principal. By December 2021, the Turkish lira had lost more than [50 percent of its value](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-lira-erdogan-new-economic-model-what) to the US dollar. [October 2022](http://www.ayd.org.tr/avm-ciro-endeksi-ekim-2022) report was equally opaque. [Turkey’s consumer spending](https://ahvalnews.com/business/coronavirus-wipes-out-third-turkeys-consumer-spending). Although Turkish reports on the performance of shopping centres always seem to indicate an upward trajectory, the economic reality is probably closer to earth. [jobs they create](https://www.haberturk.com/ekonomi/makro-ekonomi/haber/597212-35-bin-kisiye-is) (some two million in 2022) nor the revenue they generate ( [$20 billion last year](https://www.inbusiness.com.tr/in-business/2023/01/09/avmler-asla-olmez)). Still, the shopping mall industry remains confident of its relevance and AKP is unlikely to back away from breaking new ground. [small business owners](https://www.gazeteipekyol.com/haber/9283386/kucuk-esnaf-avmye-karsi-direnemiyor), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regularly emphasises the importance shopping malls play in Turkey’s economy. The first blow to the industry came in 2018, at the start of a currency crisis that has only deepened.

In the Global Resistance to Autocracy, Turkey's Boğaziçi University ... (Just Security)

We wrote two years ago when a decree by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appointed a loyalist of his governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) with ...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his [address](https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/12/22/zelensky-us-congress-speech-full-sot-vpx.cnn) to the joint session of the U. [ensure](https://twitter.com/tashecon/status/1560609580421304320?s=12) an outcome in his [favor](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/09/why-russias-vladimir-putin-rooting-turkeys-erdogan#ixzz7gCLL0ixZ). Another pocket of resistance is [environmental activists](https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/06/30/will-green-activism-save-turkey-s-democracy-pub-87413), who have demonstrated several times in different parts of the country, not only to protest projects that may be harmful to the environment, but to raise objections to the lack of transparency in the decision-making process. The photos of the Boğaziçi faculty standing, in their [ceremonial gowns with their backs turned](https://www.turkishminute.com/2022/08/26/university-rector-suspends-16-academics-for-involvement-in-protests/) to the rector’s building, have since become the symbol of their resistance. According to [one poll](https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/konda-anketi-cumhur-ittifaki-secmeni-rektorler-secimle-gelsin-diyor-haber-1555657), almost 50 percent of respondents in the country were not aware of what was happening at Boğaziçi. The outcome of these elections will determine whether Turkey, at this pivotal point [in its history](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/turkeys-centenary-could-mark-the-end-of-the-erdogan-era), gets a chance to reverse the backsliding of its democracy. [had](https://serbestiyet.com/haberler/bogazici-basortusu-dusmani-bir-universite-miydi-51682/) [resisted](https://www.jstor.org/stable/43926664) the headscarf ban imposed in the 1990s. [legislative reform](https://univ-forum.org/images/pdf/Calistay_Sonuc_Raporu_Dijital.pdf) to ensure academic autonomy for all higher education institutions in the country. This was done with total disregard for the established practice of consulting the academic community at Boğaziçi, a prestigious university in Turkey with a [historic](https://yetkinreport.com/en/2021/06/17/making-sense-of-bogazici-university-protests/) [connection](https://www.boun.edu.tr/en-US/Content/About_BU/History) to the United States as the first American college founded overseas. They adhered to the principles of “horizontal, transparent, and inclusive” policymaking, [a practice and culture at odds](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/01/21/resistance-to-erdogans-encroachment-at-turkeys-top-university-one-year-on/) with the heavily centralized, hierarchical, and opaque presidential system of governance imposed by Erdoğan. Their role in [democratic decline](https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2022/from-democratic-decline-to-authoritarian-aggression) and the [erosion of the rules-based global order](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/democracys-arc-from-resurgent-to-imperiled/) is well-recognized. [exposed](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/12/the-autocrats-are-winning/620526/) the solidarity among autocratic rulers around the world.

Analysis: Turkey and its markets head for election crossroads (Reuters)

Turks beset for years by soaring inflation and currency crashes will soon decide whether to forge ahead with President Tayyip Erdogan's vision of a ...

"But it is a hard one to move out of." [halting](/world/middle-east/turkey-cenbank-targets-60-lira-deposits-banks-h1-2022-12-30/) a years-long rise in Turks converting lira into dollars. "The credit stimulus keeps growth higher than Turkey can really sustain," he added. Inflation roared to a 24-year peak of 85% in October as food, fuel and rent costs ballooned. One popular option, Istanbul's mayor, is appealing a jail sentence and [political ban](/world/middle-east/turkish-court-sentences-erdogan-rival-jail-insulting-officials-2022-12-14/). "But if he loses the election that will be someone else's problem." "I thought it would protect against inflation ... In 2019, authorities worried about destabilising speculation squeezed international lira markets. [Injections](/world/middle-east/turkey-final-stage-talks-up-10-bln-funding-qatar-sources-2022-11-25/) into state coffers from "friendly" countries like Qatar and Russia, and from a tourism rebound, have meanwhile helped the lira stay roughly between 18.0 and 18.8 to the dollar since August - around the time Erdogan's opinion poll ratings started rebounding. [record](/world/middle-east/turkeys-raft-pre-election-spending-swell-budget-2022-12-30/) social aid spending worth some 1.4% of the annual budget, including energy subsidies, doubling the minimum wage, and [allowing](/world/middle-east/turkey-eliminates-age-requirement-retirement-2022-12-28/) more than 2 million Turks to retire immediately. Only in the medium-term could markets turn sustainably bullish given the need to address an overvalued currency and re-set interest rates to "a much higher level," he said. Register for free to Reuters and know the full story